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| 央行言辞沟通、分析师预测与宏观信息含量 |
| The Central Bank's Verbal Communication, Analyst Forecast and Macro-information Content |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 央行言辞沟通；分析师预测；货币政策；宏观信息含量 |
| 英文关键词: Central bank’s verbal communication; analyst forecast; monetary policy; macro-information content |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 论文以金融分析师为研究对象，考察央行言辞沟通的微观传播机制。研究发现：央行言辞沟通显著提高分析师预测的宏观信息含量，对分析师宏观信息含量具有非对称性影响——当货币政策处于紧缩或者市场处于熊市时，影响更加显著。经济后果的检验表明：央行言辞沟通能够促进分析师使用宏观信息进行预测，提升分析师预测的准确度。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper takes the financial analyst as the research subject and examines the micro-communication mechanism of the central bank's verbal communication. The study has found that the central bank’s verbal communication significantly increases the macro-information content of the analyst forecast and exerts an asymmetric impact on the macro-information content. When the monetary policy tightens or the market encounters a bear market, the impact of verbal communication is even more significant. The test of economic consequences shows that the central bank's verbal communication can encourage the analyst to use macro-information for forecast and improve accuracy of the analyst forecast. |
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